Are You Hungry?

FOOD: How to fix a “broken” supply system

JOHANNESBURG, 1 June 2011 (IRIN) – The current droughts
in Europe and floods in the USA threaten yet another rise in cereal prices
in the next few weeks, and serve as a reminder of the changing dynamics of
the global food supply system.

Aid agency Oxfam in its new report, Growing a Better Future, says the global food system is
” broken” and warns that we have entered “a new age of
crisis where depletion of the earth’s natural resources and increasingly
severe climate change impacts will create millions more hungry
people.”

It builds on projections by US-based think-tank International Food Policy
Research Institute (IFPRI) to predict that food prices of staple grains
will more than double in the next two decades.

Using economic modelling based on alternative future scenarios for
agricultural supply and demand that take into account the potential impact
of climate change, IFPRI has been projecting crop yields, food prices, and
child malnutrition up to 2050 and beyond.

“Climate change, high and volatile food and energy prices, population
and income growth, changing diets, and increased urbanization will put
intense pressure on land and water and challenge global food security as
never before,” said Mark Rosegrant, director of environment and
production technology division at IFPRI.

“If agricultural production and policymaking continues down its
present course, there could be severe consequences for many poor people in
developing countries.”

In another 40 years traditional suppliers of certain cereals will change
and so will food preferences in Asia as economic prosperity will wean
people off a grain-rich to a more diversified diet.

“For Asian countries, we expect rice consumption to continue to
decline – as it has been in Vietnam – from 168kg per capita in 2000 to
119kg per capita in 2050,” said Rosegrant.

Asian countries could end up exporting bigger quantities of rice mostly to
African countries. The demand for staples will grow in least developed
countries, but demand for maize and other coarse grains to produce biofuels
will grow substantially in developed countries as well, the projections
show.

But growing demand and limited potential to increase supply will force
Asian economies, including India and China, to become net importers of
grains and meat if there are no changes in the pressures on the food supply
and policies, according to Rosegrant.

The USA, Canada and Russia will be able to sustain their production and
remain big exporters. Australia’s performance depends on weather conditions
which have affected yields dramatically in recent years. Brazil and
Argentina will become increasingly important exporters. But food prices
could go up 70 percent by 2050, he says.

Global prices are already high with a lot of uncertainties even over the
next few months. “During the last food price crisis in 2007-2008, many
of the major suppliers of staple grains were affected by environmental
factors – as we have now,” cautioned Abdolreza Abbassian, secretary of
the Intergovernmental Group on Grains at the UN Food and Agriculture
Organization (FAO). The last crisis pushed up the number of hungry by
almost a billion.

So how do you repair the “broken” food system? Three experts give
us their five top policy fixes:

Christopher
Barrett, a food aid expert, who teaches development economics at Cornell
University in the USA:

·        
More money
for research: Substantial expansion of investment in agricultural research
capacity, especially in low- and middle-income countries. “The food
price crises of recent years are the bitter harvest of a generation’s
underinvestment in agricultural research to ensure that productivity growth
keeps pace with demand growth.”

·        
Investment
in renewable energy: Spend more to power irrigation in Africa and parts of
Asia and Latin America. Provide low-cost liquid fuels to reduce transport
costs and food marketing margins in more remote rural areas: and reduce diversion
of prime agricultural lands into fuel crop production. “The energy
crisis is linked to the food crisis and will become more closely coupled in
the years ahead.”

·        
Reduce
bureaucratic red tape and investment restrictions: This will improve the
flow of money in agricultural marketing systems that could reduce large
post-harvest food losses. “The world produces ample food; it just
cannot distribute and store it well so as to meet needs equitably and
efficiently.”

·        
Diffusion
of genetically modified crop varieties: Help low and middle-income
countries enact appropriate bio-safety standards to expand the use of
genetically modified (GM) varieties that have proved effective in reducing
losses to pests, increasing yields, and/or reducing agro-chemicals use.

·        
Reform US
food aid and improve coordination among donors: This will eliminate
restrictions that add costs and impose delays which undermine the efficacy
of the world’s emergency food assistance system.

Mark Rosegrant, IFPRI:

·        
Increase
investments in agricultural research to improve crop and livestock
productivity; promoting GM crop varieties which have proven effective and
are considered safe.

·        
Greater
spending on agricultural infrastructure, especially rural roads and
irrigation.

·        
Improve access
to diversified, nutritious food and safe drinking water with good service
delivery and safety nets.

·        
Spending
on girls’ education, which has a direct bearing on food security.

·        
Promote
the manufacture of ethanol – biofuel from sugarcane rather than from staple
grains. “This will not only reduce pressure on grain to be used as
feed for biofuel but provide a cheaper and greener alternative to fossil
fuel.”

Gonzalo Fanjul, Oxfam’s senior
strategic adviser:

·   

     
Manage the
food system better by regulating volatile commodity markets and making them
more transparent; bolster regional and national food reserves; and put an
end to biofuel policies which reward companies which divert food into fuel.

·        
Invest in
small-scale producers and protect their rights to land and other natural
resources. Five hundred million small-scale farms in developing countries
already support one third of humanity and offer the greatest potential to
sustainably boost global yields.

·        
Recognize
the crucial role women play in feeding the world by ensuring women are in
positions of leadership in institutions where agricultural, food security
and climate change decisions are made.

·        
Deliver a
global deal that will ensure the world avoids the worst impacts of climate
change, and helps poor producers adapt to changes already in the system.

·        
Introduce
national and international rules that will stop investors and corporations
undertaking irresponsible large-scale land investments which undermine
vulnerable people’s access to resources and food security.